Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.