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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.