🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."