Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures
The mean count of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative figures. However, public safety specialists have advised that murder data could fail to signal improved countrywide safety.
Significant Decline in Daily Figures
There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in killings that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.
Historical Background and Government Strategy
Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.
That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.
At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The main elements of the President's security plan encompass:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
- Greater coordination between government authorities.
Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations
However, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.
“This would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”
As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.
“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it may hide days when there were particularly high numbers of killings.
“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.
Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
An area where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Public Anger
Yet despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.
A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.